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Polar Bear World, Global Warming,

and the End of an Era

Jan, 2007

The western Hudson Bay (WHB) polar bear population is on the verge of a major crisis, as the globe heats up, the polar bears of Churchill are beginning to feel the adverse negative effects of a changing climate.

Once in the not too distant past, the western Hudson Bay polar bear population was estimated to number approximately 1300 strong; however, the latest scientific estimates indicate, a staggering die-off of almost 1/4 of the total WHB population in just 20 years. The revised estimates indicate about 950 animals remain, but many have suffered adverse consequences, resulting in reduced litter sizes and body mass.

Twin or triplet cubs are becoming a thing of the past, single cubs are much more common now.

Coined, the "Polar Bear Capitol of the World", Churchill, Canada has become a window for a changing world climate, and a subtle warning for all who inhabit planet earth. The dire predicament faced by the polar bear, has become an early indication of what mankind may face as the globe heats up.

Over the last decade, there has been heated debate regarding the scientific merit of global climate change. Some scientific research in the not so distant past, was broadcasting warnings to the world, that the globe was cooling rapidly, and we were heading into a new ice age. All kinds of dire predicaments were being forecast by those in the wild world of acidemia. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out, that those experts were wrong, and the boys "who cried wolf", were forever defamed as mere quacks who got it wrong...or were they?

It was little wonder, the first major scientific warnings of global climate change, came as soft media headlines in the early 90's, supported by vague scientific research.

Ten years ago, there was as much scientific data that disproved the claims of global warming, as there was that proved it was indeed a reality.

There has been wide debate amongst the scientific community in the past decade, with many big egos and reputations on the line. It was hard for the average person to understand who was really right, and a real slugfest of sorts was underway. One scientific study after another was being volleyed at the public, and at times it was quite amusing to watch the two opposing camps slug it out.

For more than a decade, credible answers to the proverbial question was aloof amidst a pile of contradictory scientific data; now who is right, and who is wrong?

The slugfest for truth appears to have finally taken a turning point. The scientific documentation has grown substantially. The data appears to be much more credible amidst much scientific research, and can now be supported by tangible evidence. Man induced global warming is now being widely accepted as reality. Natural climate change, combined with man induced climate change, is causing a more rapid depletion of the North Pole Ice Cap and an increase in greenhouse gases. The latest credible scientific models, purportedly show a complete recession of the North Ice Cap by about 2030 to 2040.

Precious Arctic Ice is thinner and on the decline in Hudson Bay.

The northern hemisphere is now showing signs of severe climate change as evidenced by those of us who dwell in the cooler regions of the planet. We have all begun to experience first hand, both the nasty, and sometimes pleasant effects of a warming globe. The polar regions have begun to display a rapid thinning and recession of a critically important element in its eco system - ice.

Ice is a critically important element in the polar bears habitat, without ice the polar bear will not be able to catch ringed seal.

The importance of the polar ice caps can not be underestimated. The ice acts as a massive reflector, reflecting the suns rays back into the atmosphere, thus helping to regulate global temperature. The ice caps also create a giant ice cube effect regulating oceanic temperature's through prevailing oceanic currents. Fluctuations to the ocean temperatures could alter the patterns in these currents which in turn could effect the entire food chain nearest the polar ice caps. If both polar ice cap's completely recede both of these important regulating effects will be undone causing severe climate change to the planet, global warming will become accelerated, and the planet may very well undergo a cataclysmic change unparalleled by any single climatic upheaval in over 20,000 thousand years.

Large three to four meter thick ice-berg's are getting much harder to see at spring break-up in Hudson Bay.

This ice-berg is about 15 meters across and 5 meters high. This photo is a double exposure with full moon and Hudson Bay in background, photo taken in 4th week of June in 1997.

Historically, it would appear, Earth has undergone a few cyclical ice age's, accompanied by at least one tropical age. One good example of this cycle is Axel Heiberg Island in the Canadian Arctic. Huge fossilized cypress trees found in Axel Heiberg Island prove the planet was once a vast tropical paradise, where no ice was to be found, even in the furthest reaches of the globe. The Climate in this Arctic region must have been very warm for cypress trees to grow, albeit was 45 million years ago, according to carbon dating of the fossilized remains. These, and other anomaly, would seem to prove the earths climate is in a constant state of flux, and mankind for the most part, is somewhat limited to natures powerful role as supreme force on planet earth. Read more about Axel Heiberg Island here.

Another very interesting fact is the woolly mammoths found in Siberia and Alaska dating between 45,000 to 3,500 years ago. Some of these mammoths died suddenly and studies have indicated that these animals had parts of their last meal between their teeth and on their tongues, which apparently they did not seem to have time to swallow. Some of these mammoths appeared to have died and were frozen suddenly without any sign of violence. It had to be a very tremendous cold in a very short period of time, or otherwise the center of the mammoth would have decomposed. These frozen mammoths have always been found on plains a little above sea level but never in mountains. Buttercup flowers were found in some of the mammoths mouths and buttercups need a fairly warm climate to grow and will not bloom without long daily periods of sunlight. Some of these particular mammoths were carbon dated at about 11,000 years old. What caused the sudden freezing and death of these mammoths? Read more about mammoths here.

Even though scientific data indicates the earth has undergone climate reversals and pole shifts in a natural course of cyclical change, none may be so profound as what lies ahead for mankind in the coming age. At this time in mankind's history, it would appear to be of paramount importance to know well in advance, the consequences of a warming planet. Only then, can mankind begin to chart a course to survive and offset the perilous forecast, of future doom and gloom, that so many scientist's predict.

A changing climate is creating a dominos effect, and may result in dire consequences to Earths entire ecosystem.

Some of the more interesting theories regarding the most negative effects of global warming are:

1. When the polar ice caps melt, the water from the massive melt-off could become distributed more evenly over the equator zone through earth's vast oceanic systems. A redistribution of the earth's surface mass could cause great tectonic shifts in the earth's crust. This redistribution of surface mass could also effect earths axis, changing the current eccentric rotation, to a more concentric rotation or vice versa. If this does happen, the globe may rotate with less or more wobble, and true north may wander further or realign closer to magnetic north. A perturbation of this magnitude could definitely cause quite a bit of flooding, earthquakes and other chaos in the world. This is known as a variation of the "polar wander theory" and is relatively new in the realm of academic sciences.

Although the "polar wander theory" is still somewhat of a long shot the consequences of a complete polar ice cap melt-off would most probably result in increased sea-levels throughout the globe. Increased sea-levels and redistribution of water could cause radical temperature fluctuations and flooding to occur in some oceanic systems, resulting in more radical climate change and more radical El Nino's. The net result; an increase in earthquakes, floods, droughts, hurricanes, volcanic activity, wars, pestilence, and famines in the most diverse of places.

2. If the oceans in the more southerly portions of the globe heat up or cool considerably, there could be super El Nino's, causing more radical weather patterns. If a super El Nino was to occur, it could cause a massive drought throughout South America, wiping out vast sections of the Amazonian Rain Forest. The amazon rain forest is essentially the lungs of the planet and is responsible for absorbing about 20 percent of the planets carbon dioxide. A massive die-off of the rain forest would further accelerate the greenhouse effect by reducing earth's ability to convert carbon dioxide into oxygen. The rotting die-off would also release massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thus creating a catastrophic dominos effect.

Accelerated warming, could also result in a sudden release of methane gas from rotting organic matter which lies along the vast coastal areas and sea-beds of the planet. A huge amount of methane/carbon dioxide, suddenly being released into the atmosphere, could further compound and accelerate the current greenhouse effect. Increases to the oceans temperature and absorption of carbon dioxide in certain water systems, is already causing coral and other sea life to die-off from increased alkalinity and warmer water temperatures.

3. One possible positive theory; when the globe reaches a certain temperature, the earths atmosphere will become much more moisture laden. There could be both negative and positive effects of a more moisture laden atmosphere. The negative effects being; more snow, torrential rain and floods in diverse places, however, a more moisture laden atmosphere could eventually create a firmament in the earths atmosphere. This firmament called clouds and haze, may eventually act as a giant sun reflector and temperature regulator in the future which could eventually counter balance the negative effects of a warming globe. However there is sure to be great challenges ahead for mankind until such a positive outcome may manifest itself.

Well... although theory is fine to discuss, it is still just theory, so lets get back to tangible basics.

A warming climate is causing a substantial increase in forest fires in the Boreal Forest and other forested areas throughout Canada and the world. Pestilence is on the increase, the pine beetle is already wiping out vast sections of forest in British Columbia, Canada.

The Boreal Forest is currently undergoing negative changes from a warming climate, many trees are dying because of increased ground water tables, other area's are becoming drier and more susceptible to forest fires. The pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada is currently wiping out vast sections of mountain pine tree's. Several consecutive mild winters have allowed mountain pine beetle populations to explode into epidemic proportions. The cost to the forestry industry is estimated in the billions of dollars, the overall cost to the planet may be far greater.

The polar bears plight may serve as a grim warning to the world.

The western Hudson Bay polar bear will undoubtably be an "indicator species" for the world. The most southerly population is on the outer limits of its polar range, and is the first of 19 distinct polar bear populations throughout the world to undergo severe habitat change. Since 2001, five of the nineteen polar bear populations are now in decline. The western Hudson Bay (WHB) population in Canada, and the Southern Beaufort Sea population (USA/Canada), have declined by 22 per cent and 17 per cent respectively over the past two decades.

Major changes in the WHB population has already begun to manifest itself, specifically within these polar bear's reproductive cycle and behavior. We see these polar bears spending up to 6 weeks longer stranded on the shores of Hudson Bay than two decades ago. The polar bears in the WHB region go on a reduced diet (limited fast) for up to 5 months while waiting for the Hudson Bay to freeze up in mid to late November, during this period estrous females may eat very little for up to 8 months as they prepare to give birth and return to the sea-ice in early to mid March. Progressively early break-ups, later freeze-ups, reduced and thinning sea-ice, has effected the bears ability to hunt its primary food source, ringed seal, this has resulted in decreased body weight, poorer overall health and reduced litter size.

Prolonged warming along Hudson Bay is reducing polar bears ability to hunt on a stable, ice-fast platform, which is needed to successfully catch ringed seals.

Good evidence of a warming climate can be seen in the progressively earlier dates in which the Churchill River breaks up. Just two decades ago the river would usually not break-up until the first or second week of July, now the river frequently breaks up in the beginning of June. During these early break-ups, the polar bears become much more susceptible to drowning in Hudson Bay and depleting critical energy reserves, as they try to stay on the ice longer in pursuit of ringed seal. Polar bears have been seen drifting in Hudson Bay 80 or more miles from land as they abort their melting ice platform and swim for shore.

The ice in Hudson Bay breaks up much sooner now, causing polar bears to venture much further on unstable pack-ice in pursuit of ringed seal.

WHB polar bears are becoming stranded on the shore's of Hudson Bay for up to 5 months, resulting in some very hungry and dangerous carnivores.

Churchill is becoming a more dangerous place for both polar bears and people.

Substantive changes to the polar bears habitat, on the shores of Hudson Bay, has made living in the remote out-post of Churchill even more dangerous. I was born in Churchill and have been a professional photographer for about 14 years at the time of this article. I have primarily photographed polar bears for a living, and have witnessed first hand, the gradual demise of the polar bears habitat, and the profound changes in the bears behavior.

In the Fall of 2006, the shores of Hudson Bay were rife with polar bear's stranded, in what would seem, an unending cycle of above average temperatures. The all too familiar cycle of a nuclear winter was in full play, and the polar bears could not venture out onto the frozen platform they so desperately needed to catch their prey.

As a result of this delayed freeze up, I had noticed a substantial increase in the aggressiveness of the polar bear's behavior. The bear's were clearly stuck in a rut and became a real nuisance to the town of Churchill, keeping the Polar Bear Alert program extremely busy. Although bear/human conflict has occurred somewhat in the past, there would appear to be a noticeable increase in these conflicts, as the bears look for much needed alternative sources of food. Polar bear conflicts with humans, usually results in the polar bear being lethally dispatched by local inhabitants in self-defence.

A increase in bear/human conflict is inevitable, as hungry, stranded polar bears, look for alternative food sources.

As a professional photographer, one would think that the stranded bears would be a real boon for my photography, but it has ultimately produced the exact opposite effect. Due to climate warming, Churchill no longer gets precipitation in the form of snowfall, it once enjoyed just 10 years ago. With much less snowfall in the Fall season, the tundra has become parched and dried, resulting in many more dirty polar bears. In the Fall season the nice white snow backgrounds usually associated with the polar bears habitat, is almost a thing of the past. The bears, have instead become trapped in a quagmire of parched tundra, where all to often, only the "very lucky photographer" can find a clean bear to photograph against a snow covered background.

I would normally shoot 100 to 150 rolls of film in a good season, however since there has been a steady demise in the northern ecosystem, the availability of good photo opportunities has dwindled substantially. The last five years has resulted in far fewer salable images, and almost no suitable imagery in the Fall of 2006 - using only a dozen or so rolls of film.

There are less polar bears and reduced snow cover on the tundra in the Fall. Photo opportunities like this are becoming a thing of the past. Reduced litter size and single polar bear cubs, are becoming much more prevalent, because of poorer overall health of the polar bear.

The tundra around Churchill has undergone substantial changes, with many small lakes drying up completely in the summer, and a once prolific nesting destination for many shore birds, has suffered a decline of 10 fold or more, since the 1970's. The birds have simply died off, or changed their migratory routes, preferring the routes which provide adequate water and food for their long flights. What was once a prime destination for bird watchers, has all but dried up to a trickle of diehard birder's, relying on a reputation that has since faded into distant memory. Also, the flowers usually associated with Churchill's beauty, no longer bloom as prolific as they did, often drying up and withering much sooner than past decades.

Lapland rosebay and other arctic flowers are less profuse because of hotter dryer summers.

Whatever your take on the global climate change debate, one cannot deny the milder winters, longer summers, and adverse effects in the northern regions. These effects are tangible and may offer a window to our future. What, exactly lies ahead for the polar bear and other species, such as mankind, is still relatively unknown.

Modern science, which predicts climate through computer generated climate models, may never have all the answers, and one must keep in mind, that almost nothing in the realm of science modeling is absolutely certain. Everything has a certain degree of uncertainty, a certain flavor of the unknown, the more you learn, the more you understand that you don't understand as much as you think.

One thing is for certain though, life in polar bear world, and on the shores of Hudson Bay, has changed drastically in the past two decades, and will continue through the coming years. No longer are the days, when one could rely on the polar bears of Churchill roaming regal snow covered landscapes and ice laden shores. For the polar bear photographer, global warming has indeed resulted in the end of an era.

~WRB~

Wayne R. Bilenduke

More to come soon...